Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence

نویسندگان

چکیده

We use a series of experiments to understand whether and how people’s beliefs about their own abilities are biased relative the Bayesian benchmark these then affect behavior. find that subjects systematically substantially overweight positive feedback negative (asymmetry) also update too little overall (conservatism). These biases less pronounced in an ego-free control experiment. Updating does retain enough structure Bayes’ rule let us model it coherently optimizing framework, which, interestingly, asymmetry conservatism emerge as complementary biases. exogenous changes subjects’ decisions enter into competition do so similarly for more subjects, suggesting people cannot “undo” when time comes decide. This paper was accepted by Axel Ockenfels, behavioral economics decision analysis. Funding: Financial support from National Science Foundation (NSF), Harvard University, Wesleyan University is gratefully acknowledged. P. Niehaus received financial NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. Supplemental Material: The data files available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4294 .

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Management Science

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['0025-1909', '1526-5501']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4294